报告题目：气候目标下热电联产退出引致的居民供热负担不平等研究

报告内容：为实现气候目标，大量燃煤电厂将提前退役，这给高度依赖热电联产供热的地区带来了严峻挑战。尽管中国拥有丰富的供热替代方案，但气候目标下热电联产退出对家庭供热负担的影响仍未得到充分研究。本文预测了在气候目标下，中国北方城市地区热电联产的供热能力、城市供热需求以及居民供热成本的时空演变。研究发现，因热电联产提前退役造成的供热损失至少相当于欧洲17.8%屋顶面积的太阳能光伏供热。进一步分析显示，用清洁供暖方案替代热电联产供热将显著增加居民供热成本，尤其是在经济欠发达地区。这些发现揭示了煤电厂提前退役可能带来的社会风险和不公平性。因此，亟需制定相关政策以应对这一问题，推动空间供暖方式向清洁和居民经济可负担方向转型。

The early retirement of coal-fired power plants for climate goals brings significant challenges to heating systems, especially in regions heavily rely on coal-fired combined heat and power (CHP). While China has access to abundant heating alternatives, the effects of climate goals on household heating burden remain largely unexplored. Here we project the spatiotemporal evolution of CHP heating capacity, urban heating demand, and residential heating costs in northern urban China under climate goals. The study finds that the heating loss from the early retirement of coal-fired power plants is at least equivalent to the solar photovoltaic heating provided on 17.8% of European Union rooftops. Further analysis shows that replacing CHP heating with clean alternatives will disproportionately increase residential heating costs, particularly in economically disadvantaged areas. These findings underscore the potential social risks and injustices when implementing coal retirement strategies. We should formulate policies to address this issue to facilitate the transition towards clean and affordable space heating.

报告人简介：张斌，北京理工大学管理学院教授、博士生导师，技术经济与战略管理系主任。国家级青年人才。长期从事能源经济与气候变化、大数据智能决策和可持续发展方面的研究。作为负责人主持国家自然科学基金、国家重点研发计划课题等20余项。在Nature、Nature Energy、Nature Communications、《管理世界》等期刊发表论文60余篇，出版专著3部，入选“香江学者计划”、北京青年托举人才工程，获教育部优秀成果一等奖（人文社会科学）、教育部自然科学奖二等奖、北京自然科学奖二等奖等10余项奖励；相关政策咨询报告被中办、国办、工信部、国家能源局等部门采纳、应用或批示。